Nightly summary (01.08.2023 04:50 RO/UA time):

You expect good news. I offer it. Not because you are waiting for it, but because the Armed Forces of Ukraine are delivering it, paying for it with blood, loss of life, and suffering, but also with hardness and hope:

1. Counteroffensive:

1.1 Eastern Front (#Kupyansk-Kreminna): The overall situation looks very bad for the Russians. What was announced as a force of 100,000 Russians, 900 tanks, and 500 other armored vehicles, it seems that not only have they reached their peak (i.e. the maximum point of offensive capability, but for 2 days they have been losing ground on the whole front.

- To the north, the Russians are pretty much stuck in the Lyman Pershyi (not to be confused with Lyman) area as Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua on Twitter) and have not advanced for a week. The reason? Because they have nowhere else to go and certainly no way to get past Siversk Donets because they have a geophysical obstacle (the Oskil River) and behind it high ground from which the AFU is constantly shelling them.

- In the #Svatove-Borova area, in the last 3 days the Ukrainians have liberated as much as the Russians illegally conquered in two weeks, being about 2 km from the front line before the loudly announced \"Russian counter-offensive\". A few km to the north, in the Andriivka (Lugansk Oblast)-Dhezereine area and in the Novoselivske (Lugansk Oblast) areas the contested area is right in favor of the Ukrainians, who have pushed back the Russians by about 4-5 km in the last week.

- South of this flank, in the #Kreminna area heavy battles continue in the forests southwest of Kreminna. The Russians did not get past Toretsk, as fortunately, we suspected they would not.

Personal note: So, at the moment, the \"counter-offensive\" after about 3 weeks has kind of lost its steam. One thing to consider is that for this maneuver at the operational level, they moved brigades out of the Bakhmut area, which makes the Russians terribly vulnerable there. But about Bakhmut a little below.

1.2 Southern Front-#Zaporojie:

- #Orihiv-#Tokmak axis. From what information appears from sources [ATTENTION, SOURCES!] in the Robotyne area the AFU is attempting an envelopment similar to the Battle of Gazala (Second Battle for Tobruk in WWII), when Erwin Rommel avoided fortification lines and mined areas by drawing an arc around the back of the fortifications. In the coming days, we will see whether or not this is the tactic used and whether it will succeed. Meanwhile, the AFU is advancing towards Verbove. Basically, they are in front of the first seriously fortified line of the so-called Surovikin Line.

- Velyka Novosilka-#Berdiansk/#Mariupol axis. After having conquered #Staromayorske 4 days ago, AFU \"filler\" units arrived in the area to fortify and protect it. On the eastern bank of the Mokri Yaly is advancing through #Urozhaine. The Surovikin Line has also been reached along this axis, only here do the Russians have a big defensive problem. If further west they have created a defense in depth that is extremely difficult to penetrate, being in consecutive layers a few kilometers apart, occupying topographically superior positions, on this axis, after #Staromlynka and Novopetrykivka there is little to stop the Ukrainians from reaching Mariupol or Berdiansk.

Personal observation: at the current rate of advance, taking into account the \"pauses\" needed for fortification, regrouping, and not stretching logistical lines to extremes (as unfortunately happened in last year\'s Harkiv counteroffensive, when they could have reached Svatove unimpeded, so hard did the Russians run), they can get as close as possible to the Sea of Azov in 2 months. That would be a catastrophe for Russia.

1.3 #Kherson Front - Eastern bank of the Dnieper: [ATTENTION, SOURCES] Russian sources are dismayed by the AFU\'s advance towards Olesky and the fact that the AFU manages to cross the Dnieper in several places, endangering the entire eastern Herson front, but also absolutely everything that is Russian logistic lines (GLOC) from Crimea.

1.4 Crimea. The railway across the Chongar Strait has been hit and traffic is closed. In recent days the Ukrainians have hit several ammunition depots in Crimea, including the port of Sevastopol, with Storm Shadow.

Personal note: The #Chongar railway bridge is essential for supplying ammunition to the Russian southwest front (Melitopol-Tokmak), and is the only communication line (GLOC) not in range of HIMARS. The alternative - Armiansk-M14-Melitopol is long since exposed and is also under Ukrainian artillery interdiction. Thus successful strike (denied for 2 days by Russians) was essential for the continuation of the AFU counteroffensive because it exposes them to \"ammunition starvation\".

- Rail and road traffic was halted over the Kerchi bridge tonight. I didn\'t find out until writing this summary why. We will probably find out tomorrow.

Personal observation: the AFU probably has two goals for this year: (1) cutting the land bridge between Donbas and Crimea, the only strategic objective that since the beginning of the invasion the Russians have accomplished, and (2) isolating Crimea and turning it into practically an island that is militarily untenable for the Russians to hold. At this point, practically the supply to the southern front is via (1) the land corridor between Mariupol, (2) the port of Berdiansk, and (3) by ferry across the Kerch Strait. However, the last 2 options are extremely impractical when one considers the huge ammunition and equipment requirements needed to support the entire Southern Front.

2. Battle for #Bakhmut 2.0

2.1 To the south, Andriivka is apparently 100% abandoned by the Russians, Klischiivka is less than 30% controlled by the Russians (in the north only), and #Kurdyumivka is already a contested settlement. Thus, the AFU is getting closer and closer to T0513, one of the logistic lines leading to Bakhmut.

2.2 In the north, fighting is taking place in Yahidne, Dobro-Vasylivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and Berkivka, but here the AFU\'s advance is much slower than in the south.

2.3 Bakhmut itself: [SOURCES!!!] I claim that the AFU already has a significant part of the western part of the town under artillery control, and raids by special forces (SSO, SBU etc) are almost daily, harassing the Russian defenses which do not get to fortify the town.

Personal note: Bakhmut at the moment is a ruin, but it is a valuable symbol for Putin. What the AFU is doing in and around Bakhmut at the moment is pretty much akin to \"reconnaissance in force\" and shaping operations. [SPECULATE!] That Bakhmut will only be assaulted at the moment when the AFU are prepared for a massive attack towards Crimea, Mariupol, and Tokmak-Melitopol, precisely to lead to the total collapse of Russian morale and entering the winter with a strong hand.

3. The terrorist attack on #Kryvyi Rih.

- A Russian Iskander hit a block of flats. The result: 6 dead, including a 10-year-old girl, and (so far) 69 injured.

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All of the above personal observations are educated guesses, so they are assumptions and please take them as such. I am not a military analyst, my skills are in areas that are only tangentially related to military strategy, so please take them with a grain of salt. But the factual observations, they are confirmed. The unconfirmed ones are marked as [SOURCES!] precisely so as not to mislead the public.

Now to be below the above line, and this is just subjective space here, I really think the AFU is prepared at this point, with all the shortcomings to strike hard not only at Russian morale but physically to continue \"decimating\" Russian troops until (1) they are exhausted or (2) Putin is forced to declare general mobilization, something he is running away from because it would generate an exodus from Russia and significant social upheaval.

It\'s worth keeping an eye on Wagner, as I said more than a week ago, and keeping an eye on their movements in Belarus, as #Poland and the #Baltic States are preparing to greet Wagner with great heat. A heat I don\'t think they\'ll be able to physically withstand. But that would already be clear and unmistakable proof that Russia, if not stopped by Ukraine, is capable of using force even in NATO countries, doing so under the PMC #Wagner umbrella. Today it is Wagner, tomorrow it may be another PMC (Private Military Company). Let\'s hope I\'m wrong.

Russia is the biggest danger to Europe at the moment, and arming Ukraine not just to survive but to win is essential to the safety of us all.

Because we are in an information war, I invite you to leave a comment, as you may have noticed I read them all and try, within the time available to respond, to give share if you think the information you bring is valuable to you and your followers and leave a like. All this is to disseminate the real message from the front and to fight Russian disinformation.

#SlavaUkraini!

(maps by @NOELreports )

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