One of the key elements of the war of attrition strategy:

Moscow's much-vaunted air defense rings have cracked again. For the second time in just a few days, Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Moscow. As it appears, Russia either has no missiles left or very few. It is increasingly evident that the Russian capital's defenses were not designed to withstand massive drone attacks.

Gasoline and diesel from Russian refineries are not just resources for civilian life - they are the "blood" of the occupying army. Every strike on this system reduces the capabilities of Russia's military logistics.

▪️ Moscow at the expense of the regions

The Kremlin faces a difficult choice. Either divert petroleum products from other regions to supply the capital or impose restrictions on gasoline and diesel sales in Moscow. So far, Putin's government has preferred the first option.

As a result, fuel sales restrictions have already been introduced in a number of Russian regions, while Moscow has mainly experienced rising prices. But even this model has its limits. If damage to infrastructure continues, supplying the capital with fuel could become significantly more difficult - even if the rest of the country is left without gasoline.

In that case, the Kremlin will face not only logistical challenges but also a political problem. The contrast between well-supplied Moscow and the regions is well known and has long been a source of domestic resentment.

▪️ Peace in the Middle East

The situation is further complicated for Moscow by the signing of a memorandum between the United States and Iran. Washington may decide not to renew the license under which countries of the Global South, primarily India, were able to purchase Russian oil without risking sanctions.

When strikes forced some Russian refineries to scale back operations, Moscow shifted its focus to crude oil exports. This maneuver helped offset losses and brought tens of billions of dollars into the budget.

Now, even if exports continue through gray schemes, their scale will be smaller and oil prices lower. That means reduced budget revenues precisely at a time when wartime spending remains high.

▪️ A prologue to a deeper crisis

If Ukrainian strikes against oil refining infrastructure maintain their intensity, the consequences could extend far beyond the energy sector. This threaten fuel supplies for the military, the stability of the domestic market, and export revenues.

Under such a scenario, Russia would simultaneously face military, economic, and logistical challenges. The combination of these factors could not only slow the army's offensive capabilities but also create conditions for more serious political pressure on the Kremlin.

That is why attacks on oil infrastructure are gradually evolving from a tactical tool into one of the key elements of the strategy of a war of attrition.