《 BNB 开启曲线救国？》

今天 $BNB ATH 后我看一堆人在讨论怎么之前一直跟稳定币一样的BNB突然这几天爆发了。

很久没有写长文了，我也来猜测一下，顺便把近期一些思路捋一捋，没有得到过官方的验证，全是我根据蛛丝马迹推的，大家当一乐看。但这些思路是我最近能拿稳BNB吃到大肉的重要原因。

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首先最近有动作大概率还是跟最近币股的爆发有关，或许就是从SBET，Tron等获得了灵感，不再刻意追求OKX的那条合规上市之路。

其实从过去一段时间不少迹象可以看出币安应该是对上市/合规有想法的，Why？ @binancezh 虽然没明说，但一直在降低明面上给 $BNB 的赋能。

继Launchpad名存实亡很久之后（狮兄应该是全网第一个说Pad不会再有），Launchpool的节奏也越来越慢，上一个Pool还是5 月 6 日的 $SXT ，距今已经2个多月。

如果有心人去币安App看看，会发现不但 Launchpad已经搜索不到（只能去网站查看往期），连Launchpool功能的界面都改了，Holders Airdrop也归入进去。现在我严重怀疑未来还会不会有往期用BNB挖份额的 Launchpool 出来，虽然收益本来就缩水了很多。

Why？

之前狮兄分析OKx上市之路的时候针对老徐对 $OKB 长时间冷处理不赋能的原因做过分析。如果要上市，那么平台币是否属于证券，能否通过豪威测试（Howey Test）非常关键。

过去SEC曾经也明确认定 $BNB 涉嫌证券，而这是Pad消失的最直接原因，Pool虽然好很多但依然算是“打新特权”，所以逐步被弱化，并被Holders Airdrop取代，从而更容易通过Howey Test也是能理解的。

虽然我之前对币安US上市持积极态度，但OKx筹谋数年都还没结果，币安上市之路还很漫长，这一点得认。

话说回来，筹备合规和上市，打新收益降低可能是 $BNB 在很长一段时间内表现平平，随大流的原因。

上面狮兄列出来的表象都指向一个非常明确的趋势：BNB 正在被“去证券化”处理，这是为了应对豪威测试（Howey Test）潜在风险。如果未来有 IPO 或大型合规合作，BNB 是否是证券将是致命敏感点。

像 FTT、KCS、HT、LEO 等平台币也在“合规转型阶段”一度失去上涨动能，体现出这种模式下平台币天然的估值抑制。

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那怎么突然跟吃了伟哥一样硬了？

要知道，谁是最大的 $BNB holder？ 大表哥怎么可能不关心BNB的价格，不希望BNB涨呢？

所以当这波币股浪潮来袭，有心人会发现，原来币安要上市，不见得只有走Okx那一条路啊，哈哈😂😂

看看孙哥的 $Tron, 不就是套了一个美股的壳曲线救国了吗？这是绕开SEC的另类路径，且已经被先行者证实可行。

那现在如此火爆的币股微策略，如果多几个正儿八经的BNB微策略公司，不就类似币安上市，而且还不止一个壳？

币安可能意识到，“做币股+微策略叙事”+BNB控盘拉升 = 变相市值重估 + 群体共识重建。这是更“Web3 native”的玩法，也能避开 SEC 的致命路径依赖。

所以 $BNB 脱离了合规转型束缚后，在微策略买入的刺激下，终于开始回归本我。

在我看来，没有合规的束缚， $BNB 早就应该1000以上了
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✅ 总结一句话：

币安可能正在从“合规上市”转向“多壳并进、变相市值重估”的战略转型期，BNB 的行情就是这种转型的直接产物。

不论这一波拉升是否有“实操派”控盘，它反映出来的 narrative 已经正在成型：BNB 可以“以虚促实”，不用非得走正道上市，也能达成市值跃迁。

一旦我这个推论被证实，那么除了拿稳 $BNB 吃够这波补偿，还要好好盯一下 BNB的微策略公司。

其中虽然可能有浑水摸鱼的，但大概率会跑出来一家类似 BMNR 或SBET 这样的龙头。

让时间来验证我的观点是否正确。

#BNB #BNB微策略
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【Is BNB Launching a Curved Path to National Salvation?】

After BNB hit a new all-time high (ATH) today, many people have been discussing how BNB, which had been behaving almost like a stablecoin, suddenly exploded in the past few days.

I’ll take a stab at explaining it and organize some recent thoughts. None of this is officially confirmed—just speculation pieced together from fragments of information. Take it as an entertaining theory.

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First, this recent surge is very likely related to the recent crypto-equity explosion. Perhaps Binance got inspired by SBET, Tron, and others, and decided to stop following OKX’s rigid compliant listing path.

In fact, there have been several signs over the past months suggesting Binance has been considering IPOs or compliance moves. Why? Although @binancezh has never said it outright, they’ve been steadily reducing explicit utility for $BNB.

After Launchpad became a mere shell (I may have been the first to publicly say Launchpad was done), Launchpool has also slowed down. The last pool was $SXT on May 6th, more than two months ago.

If you take a look at the Binance App, not only is Launchpad no longer searchable (you can only view past events on the website), even the Launchpool interface has been redesigned, and Holders Airdrop is now included in it. I’m seriously doubting whether we’ll see any more Launchpools using BNB to farm allocations again—even though the returns had already been greatly diluted.

Why?

Back when I analyzed OKX’s listing path, I explained why Xu (OKX founder) has long “cold-treated” $OKB and reduced its utility. If an exchange plans to go public, whether their native token qualifies as a security becomes a key issue. Passing the Howey Test is crucial.

Previously, the SEC had explicitly flagged $BNB as potentially being a security, which directly caused the death of Launchpad. Launchpool is somewhat better, but still counts as a “launch privilege,” so it’s also being phased out and replaced by Holders Airdrop. This makes it easier to pass the Howey Test—which is understandable.

Although I was previously optimistic about Binance US going public, given that OKX has been preparing for years with no results, Binance’s IPO journey will likely be very long. That’s just reality.

So preparing for compliance and IPOs, and reducing “launch-related” benefits, is probably why $BNB had been underperforming for a long time—just drifting with the market.

Everything listed above points clearly in one direction: BNB is being de-securitized, in order to reduce Howey Test risks. If Binance ever pursues an IPO or major compliance initiative, BNB’s status as a non-security will be a dealbreaker.

We’ve seen this story before. Tokens like FTT, KCS, HT, and LEO also lost momentum during their respective “compliance transformation” phases. That’s the price platform tokens often pay in exchange for legitimacy.

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So why did BNB suddenly get “Viagra-level” strong?

Let’s not forget: Who’s the biggest $BNB holder? Would Big Bro CZ not care about BNB’s price or want it to pump?

When this wave of crypto-equities exploded, someone sharp probably realized:

Binance doesn’t have to follow OKX’s path to go public 😂😂

Look at Sun Yuchen’s $TRON—it essentially backdoored its way into U.S. markets via a shell company. It’s an alternative, SEC-free listing path, and it’s been proven to work.

Now, with the crypto stock narrative on fire, if multiple “MicroStrategy-style BNB companies” appear, isn’t that basically equivalent to Binance going public—except with more than one shell?

Binance may have realized that:

“Crypto equities + microstrategy narrative” + BNB supply control + pump

= Repricing via new narratives + restored collective conviction.

This is a more Web3-native play. And it also avoids the SEC’s regulatory bottleneck.

So $BNB, once freed from compliance shackles, finally reverted to its true form amid the MicroStrategy-style buying frenzy.

In my view, without compliance overhang, $BNB should have been above $1000 long ago.

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✅ One-sentence summary:

Binance may be transitioning from a “compliance-first IPO” strategy to a “multi-shell, narrative-led repricing” strategy—and BNB’s recent pump is a direct result of that shift.

Regardless of whether this pump is backed by “hands-on controllers,” the narrative is clearly forming:

BNB can “fake it till it makes it”—it doesn’t need to follow the traditional IPO path to achieve a market cap leap.

If my theory proves true, then holding onto $BNB to enjoy this compensation rally is just the beginning. We’ll also need to watch BNB-themed microstrategy companies closely.

While some might be opportunistic, chances are a real leader will emerge, just like BMNR or SBET.

Let time tell whether I was right.

#BNBATH

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